LSP Projection: Sanders landslide!

Clinton could lose 50 delegates in 48 hours

Arizona, Idaho, Utah, Abroad: Sanders can reduce the gap from Clinton of 1/6

The signals are clear: the wind will change and Clinton will run for cover. 

Sanders is going to win a lot of the next states and, most likely, in 48 hours he will win four small victories but heavy: Ariziona, Idaho, Utah and Democrats Abroad.

These four challenges are worth 165 delegates. As if we were playing the game again in Illinois or Pennsylvania.

Bernie is about to win the Abroad with 70% and, therefore, to put in the bag 9 of the 13 delegates at stake.

If the percentages of its results were to remain high in the three states where the competition will move on Tuesday, it would be the beginning of the end for Clinton.

Arizona, Idaho and Utah, added together, they are worth 131 delegates, and if the Vermont senator were to establish itself in the three states with an average of 60%, he would gain 79 delegates, while the former Secretary of State only 52.

These delegates, added to those of Democrats Abroad, they would bring Sanders to reduce the gap 1/6 of the total delegates to Clinton. The new account of the delegates would be as follows: 1181 pledge Delegates to Clinton and 916 to Sanders. The new gap between the two Democratic competitors would be only 265 Delegates.

Sanders will reach 2470 Delegates. That's why

If Sanders continues with his pace in the states outside the South, he will become the next President of the United States.

Until now, he has maintained an average of 54.54%. An average absolutely impressive. Clinton responded well, but in the long run, not just to win the nomination.

The data are clear, Clinton is competitive only in some areas of the country that the caravan of the primaries will not touch most, if not rarely. This areas represent 1/3 of the American general population.

Sanders, for its part, must continue to do his own, because on balance, compared to Obama in 2008, he's compensating for the lack of many African Americans votes, but will gain many more among whites and Hispanics.

If the turnout will continue to be the same one, it may even take the same votes that Barack Obama has taken eight years ago.

That said, I leave you this infographic and just do a little math to figure out how many delegates will take Bernie and how Hillary.

Meanwhile, tomorrow, Sanders will gain 8 to 10 delegates with American abroads (Clinton only 5-3). Maybe, Tuesday, he find himself below 300 delegates of difference after the vote in Arizona, Idaho and Utah.

Sanders leads Trump by 15 points outside the South

Sanders has 10.8% of the votes in less than Obama

And African Americans are 13% of the American general population.

This means that Bernie Sanders is able to mobilize 2.2% of this community, while Hillary Clinton 2.7%. A decisive 0.5%.

The data are clear: out of the South, he has about 900,000 votes less than Barack Obama in 2008, which become 370,000 votes if we consider that, in 2008, in Ohio, Kasich didn'tt run for the GOP primary.

What will happen in California? And in Arizona or New Mexico? It will happen the same thing, but with the roles reversed. Hispanics represent 16% of the population and in California they represent the 40%. They don't vote for Clinton and, if like for African Americans with the former First Lady, will go to vote for Sanders 'only' 20% of them, the victory would be safe.

And in New York? Where Hispanics account for 30% and, on the other hand, African Americans 25%? Always the same reasoning: 0.5% in more of African Americans which currently vote more Hillary Clinton, would be offset and, at the same time, Bernie Sanders will increase his votes beacause of the 40% of non-white voters Hispanics, the 12% of the American general population. Thousands of determinants votes to lose a little, draw or win.

Tuesday the gap falls below 300 delegates

Clinton has a million votes more than in 2008. 1,105 to be precise. 545,000 earned in the South and 335,000 in Illinois. This means that she gained in the rest of the US only 225,000 votes. 2.7% more votes than in 2008. And, among many reasons, the most rational is the lack of other competitors in the race for the nomination of the Democratic Party. That's why Sanders, if he wants to win, must do more to motivate his supporters who, at the time, have proved too emotional, and often suffered the Clinton positive results. The Berners, for their part, need to understand that the worst is over and now the road is almost all downhill. Already next Tuesday, Sanders has the option of reducing the distances from Clinton than twenty delegates if he wins in Idaho and Utah, and he draws in Arizona. Should win in Arizona detachment would decrease even further, but they should be understood that the recovery will be slow but steady, and that even if Clinton win New York, they will not be discouraged again. Sanders should not delude Berners. He is to inform them of its strategy and the fact that if he wins, it will be a few delegates, the delegates that California is giving away. What's more, according to my simulation, Bernie could even lose New York, New Jersey and Indiana with 49.9%, then reduce the gap with Clinton only 30/35 delegates from sum of Alaska, Arizona, North Dakota, Idaho, Wyoming and Nebraska. And finally win with 55% in Pennsylvania, 57% in California, Maryland, Connecticut and Wisconsin and with 65% in Washington and Oregon. My experience leads me to say that the future of Bernie strategy must take account of these numbers.

LSP Simulation: Sanders can win even losing New York

My last simulation concerns the race for the nomination of the Democratic Party. Aforementioned race has come to part 2.0 and, if I may say so, starts right now. This is because Hillary Clinton has had, so to speak, enough lucky to compete in the first part of his new adventure in the most congenial State to her, amassing a lead that seems insurmountable to the less informed. This is absolutely far away from the truth and I will try to explain how Sanders has before even the possibility of a comeback. We all know that Senator Vermont is going to face duel days characterized by very favorable states.

In detail, I made a simulation, starting from some assumptions accepted or made manifest by yhe pollsters best known of America.

On this basis I have:
1. Simulated Hillary Clinton's victory in the State of New York with 50% plus one vote
2. Simulated Bernie Sanders victory in California with 60%
3. Simulated Hillary Clinton win in Indiana, Puerto Rico, New Mexico, West Virginia with 60%
4. Simulated Bernie Sanders win in Alaska, Arizona, North Dakota, South Dakota, Idaho, Wyoming and Nebraska with an average of 60%
5. Simulated, in order, Bernie Sanders victory with in Connecticut 57%, Delaware with 60%, Washington with 65%, Wisconsin with 58%, Maryland with 60%, New Jersey with 55%, Oregon with 65%, Pennsylvania with 55%.

In this way, Bernie Sanders would overtake Hillary Clinton on June 7, and would become the Democratic candidate for the White House.

LSP Simulation: Clinton vs. Sanders vs. Trump!

LSP Projection: At best Trump would win 20 states against Sanders