LSP Projection: Sanders landslide!

Clinton could lose 50 delegates in 48 hours

Arizona, Idaho, Utah, Abroad: Sanders can reduce the gap from Clinton of 1/6

The signals are clear: the wind will change and Clinton will run for cover. 

Sanders is going to win a lot of the next states and, most likely, in 48 hours he will win four small victories but heavy: Ariziona, Idaho, Utah and Democrats Abroad.

These four challenges are worth 165 delegates. As if we were playing the game again in Illinois or Pennsylvania.

Bernie is about to win the Abroad with 70% and, therefore, to put in the bag 9 of the 13 delegates at stake.

If the percentages of its results were to remain high in the three states where the competition will move on Tuesday, it would be the beginning of the end for Clinton.

Arizona, Idaho and Utah, added together, they are worth 131 delegates, and if the Vermont senator were to establish itself in the three states with an average of 60%, he would gain 79 delegates, while the former Secretary of State only 52.

These delegates, added to those of Democrats Abroad, they would bring Sanders to reduce the gap 1/6 of the total delegates to Clinton. The new account of the delegates would be as follows: 1181 pledge Delegates to Clinton and 916 to Sanders. The new gap between the two Democratic competitors would be only 265 Delegates.

Sanders will reach 2470 Delegates. That's why

If Sanders continues with his pace in the states outside the South, he will become the next President of the United States.

Until now, he has maintained an average of 54.54%. An average absolutely impressive. Clinton responded well, but in the long run, not just to win the nomination.

The data are clear, Clinton is competitive only in some areas of the country that the caravan of the primaries will not touch most, if not rarely. This areas represent 1/3 of the American general population.

Sanders, for its part, must continue to do his own, because on balance, compared to Obama in 2008, he's compensating for the lack of many African Americans votes, but will gain many more among whites and Hispanics.

If the turnout will continue to be the same one, it may even take the same votes that Barack Obama has taken eight years ago.

That said, I leave you this infographic and just do a little math to figure out how many delegates will take Bernie and how Hillary.

Meanwhile, tomorrow, Sanders will gain 8 to 10 delegates with American abroads (Clinton only 5-3). Maybe, Tuesday, he find himself below 300 delegates of difference after the vote in Arizona, Idaho and Utah.

Sanders leads Trump by 15 points outside the South

Sanders has 10.8% of the votes in less than Obama

And African Americans are 13% of the American general population.

This means that Bernie Sanders is able to mobilize 2.2% of this community, while Hillary Clinton 2.7%. A decisive 0.5%.

The data are clear: out of the South, he has about 900,000 votes less than Barack Obama in 2008, which become 370,000 votes if we consider that, in 2008, in Ohio, Kasich didn'tt run for the GOP primary.

What will happen in California? And in Arizona or New Mexico? It will happen the same thing, but with the roles reversed. Hispanics represent 16% of the population and in California they represent the 40%. They don't vote for Clinton and, if like for African Americans with the former First Lady, will go to vote for Sanders 'only' 20% of them, the victory would be safe.

And in New York? Where Hispanics account for 30% and, on the other hand, African Americans 25%? Always the same reasoning: 0.5% in more of African Americans which currently vote more Hillary Clinton, would be offset and, at the same time, Bernie Sanders will increase his votes beacause of the 40% of non-white voters Hispanics, the 12% of the American general population. Thousands of determinants votes to lose a little, draw or win.

Tuesday the gap falls below 300 delegates

Clinton has a million votes more than in 2008. 1,105 to be precise. 545,000 earned in the South and 335,000 in Illinois. This means that she gained in the rest of the US only 225,000 votes. 2.7% more votes than in 2008. And, among many reasons, the most rational is the lack of other competitors in the race for the nomination of the Democratic Party. That's why Sanders, if he wants to win, must do more to motivate his supporters who, at the time, have proved too emotional, and often suffered the Clinton positive results. The Berners, for their part, need to understand that the worst is over and now the road is almost all downhill. Already next Tuesday, Sanders has the option of reducing the distances from Clinton than twenty delegates if he wins in Idaho and Utah, and he draws in Arizona. Should win in Arizona detachment would decrease even further, but they should be understood that the recovery will be slow but steady, and that even if Clinton win New York, they will not be discouraged again. Sanders should not delude Berners. He is to inform them of its strategy and the fact that if he wins, it will be a few delegates, the delegates that California is giving away. What's more, according to my simulation, Bernie could even lose New York, New Jersey and Indiana with 49.9%, then reduce the gap with Clinton only 30/35 delegates from sum of Alaska, Arizona, North Dakota, Idaho, Wyoming and Nebraska. And finally win with 55% in Pennsylvania, 57% in California, Maryland, Connecticut and Wisconsin and with 65% in Washington and Oregon. My experience leads me to say that the future of Bernie strategy must take account of these numbers.

LSP Simulation: Sanders can win even losing New York

My last simulation concerns the race for the nomination of the Democratic Party. Aforementioned race has come to part 2.0 and, if I may say so, starts right now. This is because Hillary Clinton has had, so to speak, enough lucky to compete in the first part of his new adventure in the most congenial State to her, amassing a lead that seems insurmountable to the less informed. This is absolutely far away from the truth and I will try to explain how Sanders has before even the possibility of a comeback. We all know that Senator Vermont is going to face duel days characterized by very favorable states.

In detail, I made a simulation, starting from some assumptions accepted or made manifest by yhe pollsters best known of America.

On this basis I have:
1. Simulated Hillary Clinton's victory in the State of New York with 50% plus one vote
2. Simulated Bernie Sanders victory in California with 60%
3. Simulated Hillary Clinton win in Indiana, Puerto Rico, New Mexico, West Virginia with 60%
4. Simulated Bernie Sanders win in Alaska, Arizona, North Dakota, South Dakota, Idaho, Wyoming and Nebraska with an average of 60%
5. Simulated, in order, Bernie Sanders victory with in Connecticut 57%, Delaware with 60%, Washington with 65%, Wisconsin with 58%, Maryland with 60%, New Jersey with 55%, Oregon with 65%, Pennsylvania with 55%.

In this way, Bernie Sanders would overtake Hillary Clinton on June 7, and would become the Democratic candidate for the White House.

LSP Simulation: Clinton vs. Sanders vs. Trump!

LSP Projection: At best Trump would win 20 states against Sanders

Bernie has 10-point lead in Illinois and Missouri

The trends, the sentiment, the reaction to Trump, the history of Illinois and Chicago, the territorial characteristics of the South of the State so incredibly congenial to Sanders, they are quite clear facts. They are data that reveal a clear victory of Senator.

There's a wind of change and it seems that Sanders was able to make inroads into the hearts of African Americans pocketing definitely the legacy of Barack Obama. And most of the US President, he is succeeding favor among Latinos also in the enterprise to win wherever possible this spell. In fact, Sanders expects to win the remaining states of the Midwest and the East Coast through the black vote and those of the West Coast due to Hispanics. I consider the ability to speak to the hearts of everyone really disarming: by the farmer to the rapper, by the laborer to the student.

So, Google Trends shows a body of research for which Sanders double easily Clinton, although in this state access to the network is much more closed to Berniacs rather than Clintonites. And the trend continues to rise.

Social Mention keeps track of activity on Twitter incredible, a much more positive sentiment for Bernie rather than Hillary. There are countless retweets, at least one tweet every 10 seconds, so much passion, strength and reach. A riot. Just to mention two free tools and accessible to all.

No doubt about it: Chicago, Rockford, Quincy, Mount Vernon and Peoria voters, will make the difference. The spectacular and legendary rural areas will legitimize the outcome.

It is realistic to think that the advantage could reach or exceed about ten percentage points.


The same reasoning applies to the Missouri. Bernie is strong in Columbia, Jefferson City, Springfield, St. Louis, he doesn't give up in Kansas City and he towers over Clinton in the rest of the state. The advantage will be more than reassuring. It will be a great surprise.

The West Coast will crown Bernie Sanders

The data are overwhelming: the most important cities of the Nation of Pacifica are both cities that are doing the most donations for Bernie campaign and more crowded his rallies. The West Coast and throughout the Mid West have become over the months Purple Areas. Regardless of the outcome in Florida, Bernie will do the full of votes and delegates in the South and in North Dakota, Montana, Wyoming, Wisconsin and Utah to close the game in the states of Pacifica: Hawaii, Alaska, Washington, Idaho, Oregon and California.

This Tuesday Bernie can afford to lose in Florida also of 8-10 percentage points and simply snatch a draw in Ohio (in this state electoral dynamics are bringing him to compete more with Kasich that with Clinton).

The media - possibly - make us believe that the game will be closed, while from Wednesday will start the real race for the White House and HRC could struggle to win more than a couple of state until the end.

Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, San Diego, Los Angeles, Sacramento, Oakland are now Purple Cities. And, searches on Google Trends, Sentiment Analysis on Twitter and Facebook, Social Media studies, deep insights of past elections compared with that of today, show a sea change on the American electorate and a huge endorsement both from the rural areas both by of the most educated cities.

As in the best revolutions, when the lower class and middle class come together, it takes a miracle.

Trump made Sanders unbeatable

Donald Trump has called into question Bernie Sanders regarding violence happened during his rally in Chicago. Trump has exploited the affair urging Sanders to stop their violent supporters. A huge lie. However, not all evil comes to harm. Trump fact, attacking Sanders, proves quite awkward and, what ever transpired before, reveals the strategic failure of its staff. Why? Because of the points I will briefly enumerate:

 

1. Trump finally gives visibility to Bernie

2. Broadcasters Shall speak, more often of Bernie

3. The independent voters will take a stand

4. Berniacs ingroup will be welded and will not lose blackberries than one vote

5. Bernie (no Hillary) was chosen Those specific to tear down the enemy number one of American democracy.

Trump is an assistman. And Bernie must make goals. Because it has the opportunity to come out, managing to enter the mainstream dynamics of the super hero, the victim, the savior of the country, etc. Narrating the perspective of the eternal struggle of good against evil. In short, for Bernie Sanders could start a mythologizing process, an essential process if someone wants to make history and want to become the next President of the United States.

I superdelegati non contano nulla

Che dire, l'Italia è l'unico Paese in cui gli esperti di elezioni americane non hanno ancora capito la differenza tra delegati e superdelegati ed a che cosa servono.

Ormai credo di essere uno dei pochi se non il solo ad aver capito come funziona la faccenda ed è per questo motivo che devo dirvi e rassicurarvi, qualora tifaste per Bernie Sanders, che i delegati servono per ottenere la nomination, mentre i superdelegati servono alla convention di partito che (cosa mai accaduta) potrebbe riservarsi il diritto, qualora ritenesse il candidato vincente inadatto, di disarcionarlo attraverso, appunto, il numero di superdelegati.

Ecco perché, in realtà, per quanto riguarda i DEM la Clinton con 600 delegati circa ha solo 200 delegati circa di vantaggio su Sanders e un mucchio di strada da fare per arrivare ad una soglia di circa 2300 delegati (50%+1), mentre il GOP ha la possibilità di lasciar vincere Trump cosìccome sommare i delegati di Cruz, Rubio, Kasich e Carson (che superano il 50% del totale) ed indicare un nome nuovo che mantenga saldo il potere dell'establishment. Non fatevi ingannare.

Sanders gains Obama votes in Chicago

My data show a clear and net new alignment of the African American voters in Chicago and throughout Illinois on the side of Bernie Sanders. What appeared to be the weak point of the election campaign of the most popular Senator of America is becoming his trump card. Bernie, unlike in Michigan, can count, here in the state of Barack Obama, the largest electorate in rural areas but, above all, in a totally unprecedented, than in metropolitan areas. Also according to the theory of wildfire that sees him stand out in the center of the Mid-West and, therefore, in the surrounding areas, Illinois can be considered a purple state as of now. This being so, what is most relevant for the journey to the Democratic nomination is the magnitude of its eventual victory. In fact, Bernie is played here a chance to win many delegates how many could lose in Florida, if it went badly, drawing so deal with Hillary Clinton, waiting for the outcome of the results of the uncertain Ohio and in what should prove to be favorable Missouri. On balance, this second Super Tuesday could end with a stalemate and, in my opinion, this would represent, as much as it might seem strange, a great achievement for the candidate of Vermont. This is because, from the day after, he can count on elections in states more favorable to him and, conversely, hostile to Clinton. For Bernie Sanders is vital arrive competitive in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and Rhode Island, and then cashing delegates of delegates in Montana, Wisconsin, Idaho, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, Alaska, and California. Apparently, for HRC, it's over the bottle of Southern Comfort.

Bernie Sanders is overtaking Hillary Clinton in Florida

I think Bernie has a great opportunity. If he refused to attend the CNN Town Hall, he nullify weeks of fake polls and he would leave the Democratic voters believe that he doesn't need to confront because it was in the lead and the polls are fake. In this way he would demolish the motivation of Clinton and his voters, mortified, wouldn't go to vote. The turnout is a decisive factor in a state like Florida. If Bernie could lead to more people seats than were able to bring HRC, Obama and Edwards in 2008, he would win almost certainly seen and, considered the monolithic nature of the Clintonian electorate, made of conflicts of interest and patronage. HRC can count on the powerful platform of the Democratic Party, which promptly would vote their representatives regardless of their political offer. That said, Bernie Sanders owns a large fortune: the ability to communicate great with the independent voters, who in previous elections did not express. What's more, HRC, unlike eight years ago, will have to deal with the loss of part of his electorate in Florida: the Hispanic community and the Cuban. Indeed, unlike eight years ago, the GOP is in the peninsula with two Latinos candidates (Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio). The two Republican candidates may withdraw from the former Secretary Of State and decisive large slices of the electorate in Miami, Tampa, Orlando. That's why Bernie Sanders could have the potential to exceed HRC thanks to a downsizing besides a hard and effective work in the Center-North and in the 'deep' North where it's less overwhelming presence of the Hispanic community and shows that African American. So, Senator of Vermont has a clear chance of victory on the condition that in the North and Center-North Florida is able to establish itself with percentages that go from 60% to 65% and at the same time be able to do in the South with a gap not exceeding 15% by HRC.I think Bernie has a great opportunity. If he refused to attend the CNN Town Hall, he nullify weeks of fake polls and he would leave the Democratic voters believe that he doesn't need to confront because it was in the lead and the polls are fake. In this way he would demolish the motivation of Clinton and his voters, mortified, wouldn't go to vote. The turnout is a decisive factor in a state like Florida. If Bernie could lead to more people seats than were able to bring HRC, Obama and Edwards in 2008, he would win almost certainly seen and, considered the monolithic nature of the Clintonian electorate, made of conflicts of interest and patronage. HRC can count on the powerful platform of the Democratic Party, which promptly would vote their representatives regardless of their political offer. That said, Bernie Sanders owns a large fortune: the ability to communicate great with the independent voters, who in previous elections did not express. What's more, HRC, unlike eight years ago, will have to deal with the loss of part of his electorate in Florida: the Hispanic community and the Cuban. Indeed, unlike eight years ago, the GOP is in the peninsula with two Latinos candidates (Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio). The two Republican candidates may withdraw from the former Secretary Of State and decisive large slices of the electorate in Miami, Tampa, Orlando. That's why Bernie Sanders could have the potential to exceed HRC thanks to a downsizing besides a hard and effective work in the Center-North and in the 'deep' North where it's less overwhelming presence of the Hispanic community and shows that African American. So, Senator of Vermont has a clear chance of victory on the condition that in the North and Center-North Florida is able to establish itself with percentages that go from 60% to 65% and at the same time be able to do in the South with a gap not exceeding 15% by HRC.I think Bernie has a great opportunity. If he refused to attend the CNN Town Hall, he nullify weeks of fake polls and he would leave the Democratic voters believe that he doesn't need to confront because it was in the lead and the polls are fake. In this way he would demolish the motivation of Clinton and his voters, mortified, wouldn't go to vote. The turnout is a decisive factor in a state like Florida. If Bernie could lead to more people seats than were able to bring HRC, Obama and Edwards in 2008, he would win almost certainly seen and, considered the monolithic nature of the Clintonian electorate, made of conflicts of interest and patronage. HRC can count on the powerful platform of the Democratic Party, which promptly would vote their representatives regardless of their political offer. That said, Bernie Sanders owns a large fortune: the ability to communicate great with the independent voters, who in previous elections did not express. What's more, HRC, unlike eight years ago, will have to deal with the loss of part of his electorate in Florida: the Hispanic community and the Cuban. Indeed, unlike eight years ago, the GOP is in the peninsula with two Latinos candidates (Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio). The two Republican candidates may withdraw from the former Secretary Of State and decisive large slices of the electorate in Miami, Tampa, Orlando. That's why Bernie Sanders could have the potential to exceed HRC thanks to a downsizing besides a hard and effective work in the Center-North and in the 'deep' North where it's less overwhelming presence of the Hispanic community and shows that African American. So, Senator of Vermont has a clear chance of victory on the condition that in the North and Center-North Florida is able to establish itself with percentages that go from 60% to 65% and at the same time be able to do in the South with a gap not exceeding 15% by HRC.